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Every time I feel that Joe Biden will win in November, every time I sense that perhaps Trump can actually be beaten, maybe even trounced, I bite my tongue and tell myself, “Don’t get cocky. Don’t take anything for granted. I’ll believe it when the fat lady has sung her last note. I’ll believe it when I see the Great Orange Monster moving out of government subsidized housing.”
Aside from the fact that I’m far too superstitious, I know I’m not the only one with these feelings. But then why are we all so hesitant, all so fearful of believing that Trump can be beaten in November? The simplest answer harks back to how we all felt the day before the election in 2016 compared to 24 hours later. Trump’s victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin each came as a surprise blow to the midsection. They took our breath away and sent us off reeling. How could we all be so wrong?
So, with all due caution, why do I actually think that Joe Biden will soon become the 46th President of these United States?
My take on this begins with a question: Has Trump won over anyone new? Are there any people who didn’t vote for Trump back then who are motivated to vote for him now? Has he expanded his “base,” has he brought people over to his side with his good looks, his heart of gold, his enormous brain power? Answer: Not a soul. Yet that was apparently enough to win in 2016. So the key question becomes who will vote for him in 2020.
We begin, of course, with what has come to be known as his “base,” that basket of deplorables and less than well-educated or clear-thinking people who think he is the best thing since sliced bread. Trump plays to his base daily, calling peaceful protestors thugs, encouraging people to exercise their Constitutional right to go to their indoor churches in large numbers and show that they can’t be bullied into wearing a mask. He retweets all sorts of conspiracy theories, and reminds people that he, and not Anthony Fauci, has the real knowledge about COVID-19. After all, he aced that dementia test. For them, the base, it’s a love affair. They are sticking with their man.
But who will leave him?? That’s the $64 question that will decide this election. Easy—two important and sizable groups.
- We forget how many people, for whatever reasons, just didn’t like Hillary. They voted anti-Clinton, not pro-Trump. Poor Hillary. I liked her, still do, but she was a lightning rod for a sizable number of haters. Joe’s a good guy. It’s hard to vote for Trump simply because Biden’s not a guy you would want to have a beer with. Joe’s not going to lose any votes when it comes to likable and folksy.
- We forget how many people thought badly of politics-as-usual, and thought that this guy was a novelty. He’s a rich TV star, a brash real estate mogul. He says he’ll clear the swamp, and do things right. Well, maybe he will. I’ll take a chance a cast my vote for him (especially since I’m not wild about the alternate). Let’s see if he can deliver.
Well, bud, the novelty has worn off, and the promise has gone unfulfilled. The swamp is larger and deeper and more foul-smelling than ever. The economy has gone south and guess where the buck stops, even if a certain chief executive won’t stand up and admit it when anything goes wrong. A neighbor at the end of my block had a Trump sign on his lawn in 2016, and just a month ago had a Trump flag flying from his house. He now flies an American flag, with no sign of a Trump endorsement—and I feel certain that he is not alone. I believe that there are thousands upon thousands who voted for the man, but who still value reason, dignity, honesty, and/or compassion, and they are moving away—fast.
So every time the Trumpster opens his mouth, he bolsters the support of his base, but loses another dozen people who see through the smoke and mirrors. I’ve said it before and I’m sure that I’ll say it again several times between now and November: Joe, please don’t do or say anything to move people away from you. In fact, Joe, don’t say much of anything at all.
I really do believe in you, but you have shown a tendency to place your foot squarely in your mouth and give Trump the ammunition to win back those defectors. Pick a VP who people won’t object to. Remind us that you care—which I really believe you do—and offer us a sense of caring, competence, rationality, and hope. Turn this into a simple referendum on the bizarre man without a mask, and this can be a winning season.
I look forward to that first Tues in November when I can turn on CNN and hear Wolf Blitzer declare a Biden victory (and a Democratic Senate). I know that it’s way too far off to say I can taste it, and I don’t want to jinx it. Still, some time in the next 24 hours, I’m anticipating another Trump-ism, another example that for this man every day brings the possibility of a new low–on rationality, on decency, on whatever. And each day I watch as the momentum swings in direction of the good guys.
1. Biden is a weak candidate, 2. But no one hates him. Those who disliked both HRC and DJT in ’16 broke for Trump. Now, anyone who dislikes both will surely break for Biden, and 3. There is no getting around the disastrous nature of Trump’s corona virus (non)response, especially when 4. He is engaged in what might be called opportunistic federalism: in regard to Covid, let the governors and the local leaders handle it. In regard to protest in the streets, to hell with the states, the feds have to do it. But, 5. If the Biden folks have… Read more »
I think Biden is turing out to be a strong candidate. But I want the low expectations to continue to some degree. Then, when he outperforms expectations in the first debate….it’s game over.